Keep an Eye to the Sky

A good swath of the Midwest will be under the gun for the risk of severe weather today. Locally, we will see warm and even humid conditions for the better part of Mother’s Day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s and flirt with 80 in a few spots.

The main player in our forecast is a warm front positioned across Missouri and southern Illinois. As this warm front lifts north this afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms will develop along it. Some of these thunderstorms will be on the strong-to-severe side.

T'Storms along the Warm Front

T’Storms along the Warm Front

Weather forecast models vary on the exact timing of thunderstorm development. It appears that late afternoon into the after-dark hours will be the time frame. This will allow plenty of heating to take place during the day, which will help fuel any thunderstorm development.

Strong winds over 60mph, sizeable hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and torrential rain will be possible in a severe thunderstorm. There is a risk of tornadoes today, primarily over Iowa and Kansas. However, some rotation is possible with local storms…..something which we will be monitoring.

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There is no need to panic, but today is a good day to be weather aware! If you haven’t already, I’d recommend downloading our 13 Exactrack app for your smart phone. It’s free and has a few of the tools we use to track the weather!

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, safety, severe weather, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 11, 2014

Storm Chances on the Rise

Severe weather on Saturday night will stay focused across Missouri and southern Illinois. However, a few showers and even a couple of thunderstorms will drift our way from Iowa overnight through sunrise.

T'Storm Chances Increase

T’Storm Chances Increase

Have that umbrella handy this Mother’s Day! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Sunday. The best time frame for storms is during the afternoon and evening hours. With a warm front lifting north, our temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. We’ll notice an increase in humidity as well.

T'Storms along the Warm Front

T’Storms along the Warm Front

That warm front will also act as a trigger for thunderstorms to develop. Cities such as Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Omaha, Kansas City and Wichita have the greatest risk for severe weather, including the threat for a tornado. Locally, we will be at Threatrack Level 2. Strong wind, hail, torrential rain and cloud-to-ground lightning will be our biggest concerns. We may have to monitor the radar for possible rotation. Thunderstorms, however, will be scattered in nature.

Sunday: Threatrack Level 2

Sunday: Threatrack Level 2

Our thunderstorm chances stick around Sunday night and Monday. Monday could very well be another active day across the Midwest. We will remain at Threatrack Level 2 until a cold front sweeps through the area Monday night.

Monday: Threatrack Level 2

Monday: Threatrack Level 2

Keep it tuned to the 13 Weather Authority blog, WREX.com and our social media sites for the latest updates. -Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 10, 2014

Showery Sunday

After receiving nearly one inch of rain in the past week, it was nice to catch a break today! However, our rain chances return on Sunday. Scattered showers will dot the sky and the radar mainly during the morning hours. A few showers may linger in the southern part of our viewing area until 1pm or so.

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly in the morning

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly in the morning

Overall, rainfall totals will be light. Our Futuretrack model suggests anywhere from a trace to about one-tenth of an inch. The atmosphere is fairly dry, as an area of high pressure to our north will help keep this system moisture-starved.

Futuretrack: Light Rain Totals

Futuretrack: Light Rain Totals

Clouds will be more prevalent in the morning and become partly cloudy during the afternoon when our rain chances come to an end. Temperatures will rise from the 40s in the morning into the upper 50s by evening.

Things will then remain dry until late Tuesday night, when scattered showers and thunderstorms re-enter our forecast.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 3, 2014

Temperature Spread

A slow-moving area of low pressure will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. A warm front associated with this system will wreak havoc with meteorologists, including yours truly, in regards to temperatures!

The front will waver back and forth ever so slightly near our local area. An east wind off of Lake Michigan will keep things pretty chilly north of the front while a southeast wind will allow for mild temperatures to the south of the front. The problem? Our area will be near and at times in this transition zone.

Cool vs. Warm

Cool vs. Warm

A great example was Saturday. The afternoon high only reached 52 degrees in Lake Geneva while Dixon climbed up to 68 degrees! That same spread looks to set up shop on Sunday. If you take a drive down I-39, temperatures will be in the lower 50s in Madison, middle 50s in Janesville, upper 50s in Rockford, lower 60s in Rochelle, middle 60s in Paw Paw, and near 70 in LaSalle-Peru!

Sunday Temperature Spread

Sunday Temperature Spread

Monday should be a relatively mild day for much of the area (rainy though). Models are beginning to come into agreement and it appears that much of our area will hit 60 on Monday.

Monday Temperature Spread

Monday Temperature Spread

By Tuesday, a temperature spread of 20 to 30 degrees is still a good bet from Milwaukee to Moline, with the Stateline right in the transition zone.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 26, 2014

Healthy Dose of Rain

As the title says, a healthy dose of rain is in the works for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. We need it too! Our April monthly rain total is down about 30% from normal. Our seasonal (since March 1st) deficit is just over two inches. From the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning through Monday evening, many of us could pick up an inch or two of rainfall.

Rainfall Potential: Sunday through Monday Evening

Rainfall Potential: Sunday through Monday Evening

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will push through the Midwest, with our area expected to receive some of the higher rainfall totals. The potential for heavy rainfall exists on Sunday evening through Monday morning. This is when the bulk of the rain will fall into our rain gauges.

Click HERE for a look at our thunderstorm chances over the next couple of days.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 26, 2014

Rain & Thunderstorms Arrive

Showers and thunderstorms will dot the radar screen on Sunday. Since the rain will be scattered in nature, there will be a few dry periods during the day. When it’s not raining, it will be mostly cloudy and windy. An east wind will gust up to 30mph at times.

Scattered showers & t'storms will become more numerous by Sunday evening

Scattered showers & t’storms will become more numerous by Sunday evening

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday evening and night, with heavy rain a good bet. The chance for any severe weather is low, but not zero. We are under a Threatrack Level 1 for Sunday, meaning general thunderstorms may contain some gusty wind and small hail. A local severe weather outbreak is not likely.

Sunday

Sunday

The highest risk for severe weather on Sunday will occur from the Quad Cities, Peoria, and points south. Tornadoes are possible in central & southern Illinois, southern Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas.

On Monday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue across our area. Another threat of severe weather exists, but it appears things will stay active just south of our local area once again.

Monday

Monday

Should anything change, I will update this blog post.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 26, 2014

Pleasant Weekend

Pleasant. Gorgeous. Beautiful. Nice. Spectacular. Any one of these adjectives could describe our weekend forecast!

Sunshine and a breezy south wind awaits us on Saturday. A few clouds will dot the sky but things will remain dry.

SATURDAY

Saturday Forecast

Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s across far northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Those living along the Interstate 88 corridor may flirt with 70 degrees by late afternoon!

FutureTrack: Saturday High Temperatures

FutureTrack: Saturday High Temperatures

Sunday will see a mix of sun and clouds and a southwest breeze….perfect for an outdoor Easter egg hunt! A cold front draped across northern Wisconsin will begin to move south by evening. A few showers are possible mainly after dark.

Sunday Forecast

Sunday Forecast

Temperatures will rise into the lower 70s, at least, for Sunday afternoon and early evening. Not bad at all!

FutureTrack: Sunday High Temperatures

FutureTrack: Sunday High Temperatures

Beyond the weekend, a fairly mild pattern will continue. Showers are a good bet on Monday and late next week.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 18, 2014

Flood Watch

Flood Watch is in effect for northwestern Illinois and southern Wisconsin through Monday morning. Our local Illinois counties under this watch include Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson and Whiteside. Our local Wisconsin counties under a Flood Watch include Green, Rock and Walworth.

Flood Watch

Flood Watch

Additionally, a Flood Watch is in effect for the Kishwaukee River in southern Winnebago County for possible rising water early this week. Periods of rain with embedded thunder will continue through Sunday afternoon, evening and overnight. Rain will be heavy at times, especially in the evening and nighttime hours.

Weekend Rainfall through 3pm Sunday

Weekend Rainfall through 3pm Sunday

Local rainfall totals from Saturday through early Sunday afternoon have varied across the area, with Rockford picking up about half an inch. Parts of Jo Daviess County and much of southern Wisconsin have seen their rain gauges add up to nearly an inch.

Additional Rainfall Potential through Monday Morning

Additional Rainfall Potential through Monday Morning

Additional rainfall of one to two inches is possible overnight through early Monday morning.

-Joe

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Posted under Exactrack|HD, flooding, FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 13, 2014

Rainy Sunday

Periods of rain, even some embedded thunderstorms, will end our weekend on a wet note.  Rain will be off-and-on throughout the day. FutureTrack suggests a break in the action early Sunday morning.

FutureTrack Sunday morning: few showers

FutureTrack Sunday morning: few showers

By late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, rainfall may be heavy at times. Plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a frontal boundary draped through the area will provide some generous rainfall totals.

FutureTrack Sunday evening: heavy rain

FutureTrack Sunday evening: heavy rain

By the time things quiet down in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning, a good one to two inches of rainfall will be possible.

Rainfall Potential: 1-2"

Rainfall Potential: 1-2″

We will dry things out for Monday evening and Tuesday.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 13, 2014

April Showers

Mild temperatures are finally in the forecast for an entire week, as the 7-Day Forecast shows. But our overall weather pattern will be a bit unsettled. There is a chance of rain on five of the next seven days.

aprilshowers

No need to worry though—it won’t be a complete washout. On Monday and Tuesday, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will be sandwiched in between two weather systems. Heavy rain is a good bet southeast of our area, including the southern suburbs of Chicago, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio. Some steady showers are likely across Iowa with another system to our west.

showers

We will be caught in the middle, so a few showers will be possible Monday afternoon, Monday night and Tuesday. Showers will be widely scattered and light, with a tenth of an inch of rain at best.

Futuretrack: Now through Tuesday Evening

Futuretrack: Now through Tuesday Evening

Rainfall has been scarce lately and we could use some. Looking at the rest of the week, rain chances will continue to be small. A few showers (rumble of thunder?) will be possible again late Thursday. A better chance of rain may be in the works for next weekend.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 6, 2014