What Month is it?!

Unseasonably cool air will stick around for the next couple of days. Even though the calendar says it’s the middle of July, our temperatures will keep things feeling like it’s the middle of September! Our average high temperature this week is 85 degrees. Our average low is right around 63 degrees. Statistically speaking, this is usually the warmest time of the year.

Forecast Low & High Temperatures vs. Normal

Forecast Low & High Temperatures vs. Normal

Our low temperatures will bottom out in the 50s through Saturday morning. It appears that our record low temperatures will remain untouched. Record low temperatures for the next couple of days are in the middle 40s. However, a couple of our usual cool spots may dip below 50 degrees for an hour or two, especially Wednesday morning.

Low 50s (maybe even cooler Wednesday morning)

Low 50s (maybe even cooler Wednesday morning)

High temperatures will be hard-pressed to reach 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon!

Barely Hitting 70 on Tuesday

Barely Hitting 70 on Tuesday

After Tuesday, though, high temperatures will increase a couple of degrees every day. Here’s a look at the 7-Day Forecast; temperatures will be comfortably mild by the end of this week. Next week, there is a good chance for us to see a string of days with above normal temperatures.

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, FutureTrack, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 14, 2014

Drying Out a Bit

We are going to get some much needed dry time over the next 60 hours or so! Our weather pattern remains similar to what we’ve experienced for most of the summer. With a jet stream diving out of Canada, a northwest flow pattern will allow numerous weather systems to quickly move through the Stateline area.

Our Weather Pattern

Our Weather Pattern

The good news is that the chance of rain through Thursday night is slim to none. At most, a quick shower or two will dot the sky. Otherwise we will get to enjoy many hours of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lows will be in the middle-to-upper 50s through Friday (some may call it a perk of a northwest flow pattern)!

FutureTrack Rainfall through Thursday: Little to None

FutureTrack Rainfall through Thursday: Little to None

Rain has been plentiful over the last several weeks. The month of June is in the record books for the 8th wettest June in Rockford’s climate history, thanks to over 8 inches of rainfall. It rained on 20 out of 30 days during June 2014! The month of July is currently on par for rainfall. It rained on 4 out of 8 days so far this month.

Rainy Meteorological Summer So Far

Rainy Meteorological Summer So Far

We actually had rainfall deficits for March, April and May. The rain so far this summer has more than made up for it. Our yearly precipitation total is almost 19 inches which is slightly above average. Looking ahead, the best chance of rain will come Friday and into this weekend with scattered thunderstorm activity each day.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, FutureTrack, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 8, 2014

Independence Day Records

Independence Day 2014 will not enter the weather record books. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t remember it! This year we had a mostly sunny sky with low humidity values. The day started off a bit cool with a low of 52 degrees in Rockford. During the afternoon, we warmed up to a comfortable 79 degrees. Overall, it was a pleasant holiday!

July 4th, 2014 High Temperatures

July 4th, 2014 High Temperatures

Looking back at the climate history books, only 23% of Independence Days in Rockford had a high temperature in the 70s. Most of the time—about 53%—our high is in the 80s. The coolest high temperature occurred on July 4, 1967 with a reading of only 62 degrees. It’s no surprise that July 4, 1967 also had the record cold low temperature. That was 46 degrees!

July 4th Records

July 4th Records

The hottest temperature to ever occur in the Forest City on July 4th happened just two years ago! Back in 2012, we sizzled in 102 degree heat! It has also stayed dry on the 4th of July for the last four years. In fact, about 54% of Independence Days remain dry. Since 1906, only twelve holidays have had rain totaling more than a quarter of an inch!

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, history, record weather, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 4, 2014

Warmest Day of the Year

The National Climatic Data Center released some interesting statistics yesterday. Using our temperature averages from the most recent climate data period, we are able to determine when we can expect our warmest day of the year. The most recent climate data period encompasses 30 years worth of daily weather observations taken between 1981 and 2010. This is 10,958 days of temperature and precipitation data!!!

Heating Up: When We Typically See the Warmest Day of the Year

Heating Up: When We Typically See the Warmest Day of the Year

Based off this data, the warmest high temperature of the year usually occurs between July 6th and 10th for north central Illinois. This includes Rockford, Belvidere, DeKalb, Rochelle, Dixon, Sterling and Rock Falls. For far northern / northwestern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, the warmest high temperature of the year typically occurs between July 11th and 15th. This includes Galena, Savanna, Monroe, Beloit, Janesville and Lake Geneva.

This makes sense for our region! Our statistical average high temperature during this July 6th through 15th timeframe in Rockford is 85 degrees. The hottest temperature to ever occur in Rockford was 112 degrees on July 14, 1936.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 26, 2014

June Rainfall Surplus

The chance for rain has been in the forecast for a while, and it’s going to stay there through the end of the month! We kicked off June 2014 with some rain and thunderstorm activity. Rainfall for the first week of the month added up to just under an inch. Close to another inch of rain fell in the span of two days during the second week of June.

June 2014 Rainfall (through June 24th)

June 2014 Rainfall (through June 24th)

Rainfall totals began to accelerate during the third week of the month. At Chicago Rockford International Airport, nearly 4 inches of rain fell from June 15th through June 21st. Other parts of our area, particularly south and west of Rockford, picked up as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain that week!

FutureTrack Rainfall Potential

FutureTrack Rainfall Potential

Rainfall is now at a surplus for the month of June. For the year, however, we are below average…..but not by much. Even though we’ll hang onto the chance for rain through the end of June, the heaviest rain looks to stay out of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Long range models are giving us between a quarter and one inch through next Monday.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 24, 2014

Healthy Dose of Rain

Thanks to some shower activity Tuesday night and a steady rain that fell between 1am and 10am Wednesday morning, our rain gauges have filled up nicely. Areas along and east of the Rock River picked up over an inch of rain. A few spots in DeKalb and McHenry County soaked up almost two inches! Parts of Carroll, Green, and Jo Daviess County hardly picked up anything.

24-Hour Rainfall Totals (10am Tuesday - 10am Wednesday)

24-Hour Rainfall Totals (10am Tuesday – 10am Wednesday)

At Chicago Rockford International Airport (RFD), rainfall added up to nearly two-tenths of an inch (0.19″) fell Tuesday night. Just over eight-tenths of an inch (0.82″ as of this blog post) fell Wednesday morning.

Rainfall by Hour

Rainfall by Hour at RFD

A few spotty showers are possible early this afternoon, but any additional rainfall will be light and less than one-tenth of an inch (0.1″).

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 11, 2014

Catching up on Rain

With not much else to talk about on this dreary Wednesday, I figured that we should take a look at rainfall! Heavy rain to the tune of 3 to 6 inches inundated parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois last night.

Locally, our rainfall totals were much lighter. The heaviest rain—generally between one-third and one-half inch—fell in southern Whiteside, southern Lee, and southern DeKalb County. The highest local rainfall totals I found were observed in Mendota (0.45″), Amboy (0.34″), and Sublette (0.34″). These measurements will likely increase since they were observed at 7am.

Rainfall through 7am Wednesday

Rainfall through 7am Wednesday

We actually need the rain around here! Meteorological spring (March, April, May) saw 6.23″ of precipitation at RFD Airport, just 64% of what we typically receive. For the year, we have a deficit of 2.79″ (not including Wednesday’s rainfall).

Rainfall Deficit nearing 3"

Rainfall Deficit nearing 3″

We’ll catch a break from the rain with a couple of sunny days on Thursday and Friday. The chance for rain and thunder returns this weekend. Check out the 7-Day Forecast!

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 4, 2014

Meteorological Summer Has Arrived

It’s that time of year again! Meteorological summer begins on June 1st. After what seemed like a relentless winter and a haphazard spring, did you think we’d ever make it?

The timeframe of meteorological summer is simple; it constitutes the entire months of June, July, and August. This is the best way for meteorologists and climatologists to keep track of what are typically the warmest and wettest months of the year. Using the time period from the summer solstice to the autumnal equinox would require breaking up the months, something that is doable but less convenient!

Meteorological Summer: June 1st - August 31st

Meteorological Summer: June 1st – August 31st

Locally, our average high temperature rises into the lower-to-middle 80s. Average low temperatures are in the lower 60s for meteorological summer. However, we all know that these numbers are statistical averages from years past. We can and will have high temperatures in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and possibly 100s.

The three meteorological summer months are usually our wettest months. Summertime showers and thunderstorms bring an average of 4.65″ of rain in June, 3.95″ of rain in July, and 4.59″ of rain in August. Over one-third of our annual precipitation often falls within this one-quarter of the year. However, periods of drought or periods of excessive rainfall are not out of the ordinary here in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. In fact, we are headed into June with a spring rainfall deficit of 3.46″ believe it or not!

-Joe

 

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, First Look, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 31, 2014

Memorial Day Climatology

Memorial Day 2014 is upon us! What started as ‘Decoration Day’ in order to honor the graves of fallen soldiers just after the Civil War, Memorial Day was declared a national holiday in 1971. After that declaration, the holiday was observed on the last Monday of the month of May. Since the date changes from year to year, there is no statistical ‘normal’ from a climatology standpoint.

However, daily weather observations have been recorded for Rockford since 1905. Since records began, the majority (42%) of Memorial Days have had high temperatures in the 70s (41 out of 106 data years). About 26% of Memorial Days have had a high temperature in the 80s (28 out of 106 data years). This year, we’re going to be in the 80s! Last year, of course, was the 7th coolest high temperature for any Memorial Day at 61 degrees! It was also a little rainy.

Memorial Day Statistics

Memorial Day Statistics

Does it always rain on Memorial Day? A lot of people have been asking this question lately. The answer of course, is no, but it’s not a solid no. If history proves anything, we’ve got about a 50/50 shot at seeing at least some rain on Memorial Day! Since records began in Rockford, 52 Memorial Days have had rain while 55 have not! The wettest Memorial Day occurred in 1916, with 1.65 inches of rain falling in Rockford. May 28, 1984 was probably the most miserable Memorial Day from a weather standpoint: the high temperature was only 47 degrees with just over an inch of rain! This year, it looks like we’ll have to dodge some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, record weather, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 25, 2014

Clouds Keeping Us Cool

We have entered into a cool stretch that will be giving us three straight days with high temps in the 50s. That means our highs will be some 15-20 degrees below average. Not to mention, the next two nights will drop all the way into the upper 30s. Just for a quick reality check, our average high temp over the next three days is 72° – GregCapture

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Posted under cold blast, statistics

This post was written by qni_it on May 15, 2014