Amazing timelapse of Sandy coming into NYC

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Posted under tropical weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 31, 2012

Hurricane Sandy in 1 minute, 49 seconds

Check out this timelapse of New York City during Hurricane Sandy. Power goes out around :42. -Eric

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Posted under tropical weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 30, 2012

Overnight East Coast Developments

According to The Weather Channel – 7 million people are without power this morning, more than 1 million of those in New York. Davis, West Virginia has already seen 18 inches of snowfall with much more expected in the next 48 hours.

Early this morning, President Obama declared New York and Long Island “major disaster areas”. This makes federal relief funding available for folks affected in the area.

According to CNN: The storm has claimed the lives of at least 16 in the United States.. This brings the death toll to 84 after the storm wreaked havoc on the Caribbean last week. Also, a levee broke early this morning in Moonachie, New Jersey leaving up to 1000 people in need of rescue due to several towns being in up to 4 to 5 feet of water.

More updates to come as things develop. -Greg

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Posted under event, tropical weather, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 30, 2012

Coverage of the landfall of Hurricane Sandy

Here is a live stream from The Weather Channel.

Raw video of wind blowing facade off of building in New York City.

Raw video of explosion at ConEd power plant in New York City.

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Posted under tropical weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 29, 2012

Bracing for Sandy

Hurricane Sandy has begun to pick up speed as it races to make landfall on the upper east coast later today into tonight. This super storm could threaten up to 50 million people from the New England states to as far west as Ohio. It is projected that up to 10 million people could lose power within the next 24 hours which has left power companies reaching out to other states to assemble help from across the country. As of this morning, nearly 9000 flights have been cancelled affecting global travel. This system could affect people as far west as Ohio because of its sheer size. Tropical Storm force winds will be felt as far as 500 miles away from the center of the storm as it makes landfall. Up to at least 7 inches of rain could fall over New York and New Jersey within the next 24 hours and some spots in the Appalacian Mountains could see up to 3 feet of snowfall. The timing of this storm could also enhance the flooding it brings. Its landfall tonight, during the high tide of a full moon could lead to much higher waves than if the storm would have impacted the coast earlier in the day. In anticipation of the threats Hurricane Sandy could cause, President Obama declared 6 states (Massachusettes, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania) emergency areas so that those states could already begin receiving federal relief assistance. The 13 Hurricane Authority will keep you posted on all the updates to come regarding Hurricane Sandy. -Greg

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Posted under flooding, news, rain, tropical weather, weather, Wind

This post was written by qni_it on October 29, 2012

Wicked Waves

Hurricane Sandy and her remnants have quite the mess in store for the northeastern quadrant of the United States.  Strong wind gusts up to 90mph, coastal beach erosion, heavy rainfall in excess of 10 inches, flooding, areas of heavy snow with blizzard conditions….Sandy is packing quite the punch.

Only about 60 miles east of Rockford is Lake Michigan.  That lake, and the other four Great Lakes, will have quite the wind and wave storm of their own for the next couple of days.  Storm warnings, gale warnings, and lake shore flood advisories have been posted for areas along the lake shores.

Lake Michigan will endure strong, northerly wind gusts up to 60mph.  As a result of the northerly wind and the orientation of the lake, waves will increase (especially on Tuesday) to 20 to 25 feet!  That does not happen very often! Some damage is possible with lake shore flooding, coastal and beach erosion, and traffic problems.  Lake Shore Drive, with it’s proximity next to Lake Michigan, may be closed down for a time if waves reach the highway.

-Joe

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Posted under tropical weather, weather, Wind

This post was written by qni_it on October 28, 2012

Sandy: Heavy Rain, Wind, Snow

Hurricane Sandy continues to trek north off the Eastern Seaboard of the United States.  As she continues to push north, Sandy will lose her status as a hurricane.  She will become a tropical storm and eventually an extra-tropical system as she makes landfall in the northeastern United States.  However, the impacts of Sandy and her remnants will be detrimental for tens of millions of people.  Currently affecting coastal South & North Carolina, and then moving up to the New York City area by Monday and Tuesday, Sandy will be an historic storm.

Sustained wind speeds over 50mph will be possible all the way up the East Coast through Wednesday.  This will result in widespread power outages and property damage.  Beach erosion will be a major concern for many coastal towns.  Rainfall along the coast could approach 12 inches in many spots.  Even areas away from the Atlantic Ocean, including West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio, could pick up 3 to 5 inches.  Widespread flooding will cause major impacts in the hilly terrain of that region.  Another facet of this storm will be its interaction with the cold air.  Many areas of higher elevation in the Appalachian mountains will have a heavy, wet snow blanket the ground.  Nearly a foot of snow is forecast for the highest elevations in West Virginia.  A few inches are even possible as far south as eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina!

Travel is not advised during this storm.  Many states have declared a state of emergency.  As Sandy continues to evolve, we will keep you up to date with the latest information. -Joe

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Posted under flooding, rain, record weather, safety, severe weather, snow, travel, tropical weather, weather, Wind

This post was written by qni_it on October 26, 2012

Glad I’m not forecasting for the Northeast!

4:00PM UPDATE – Due to the significant impacts Hurricane Sandy could have on the Northeastern United States, the National Weather Service will begin launching weather balloons every six hours, versus every 12 hours. This will increase the amount of upper-air data that the global models use to formulate forecast projections. Each dot on this map represents a NWS office that launches balloons. Note, the closest locations to us are Davenport, Lincoln (IL), and Green Bay. Official statement can be read here.

 

 

As we mentioned here on the blog yesterday, the Northeastern United States could be in for a doozy of a storm early next week. Ironically this comes exactly 21 years after the “Perfect Storm.”

The next few days could also cause serious distrust between the public and news media/meteorologists up and down the Eastern Seaboard.

The ECMWF model brings the system up the Atlantic, scraping the Carolinas with hurricane wind, and then backing it into New Jersey by Monday morning.

But this is LIKELY not the correct scenario as the models will begin to converge on an eventual solution between this solution and the National Weather Service’s GFS solution (pictured here). The GFS stalls the system with an eventual westward turn Tuesday morning into Coastal Maine!

If you have family or friends in the Northeast, or have travel plans there, please monitor later statements and forecasts as hurricane force wind, flooding rain, and dangerous waves/coastal erosion could occur. -Eric

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Posted under tropical weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 24, 2012

Superstorm for New York?

Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to become a hurricane in the next few days as it moves over Cuba, exiting the Caribbean, entering the Atlantic Ocean. Very warm ocean temperatures will promote deepening of the hurricane as it moves northward, skirting the Carolinas. While climatology says this will likely move east, away from the Northeastern United States, the reliable ECMWF model shows a very dire situation come Tuesday of next week. The graphic to the upper left shows a very powerful hurricane off of the Carolinas Monday morning which would significantly batter the coastline from Virginia, northward to Cape Cod.

Now here is the ECMWF solution for Tuesday morning with a landfall on the tip of Long Island and/or Connecticut. At this point, the hurricane may have morphed into a subtropical hurricane as it changes from a warm-core system to that of a cold-core. Still, extreme wave heights, tidal surges, and heavy rain could batter the coast of New England for days.

In addition to the threat of coastal problems, this “super storm” scenario could bring significant snows to Pennsylvania the day before Halloween.  

 

And here is the afternoon forecast discussion from NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 – 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012

…POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK…

PRELIMINARY UPDATE…

UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL
INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO
LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION.
USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE
TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23
GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF
SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING
THAT THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH
CLOSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE
SEVERAL RUNS OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT,
WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS
IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5
FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW THEREAFTER AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION.

FINAL…

ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM
IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS
SANDY’S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN
LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS
SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA,
THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER.
THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP
POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR
JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC
TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB.
THEREIN LIES THE STORM’S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING
THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY,
OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS
OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY
DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE
OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS
POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES
BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW
OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH.

CISCO

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Posted under end of the world, tropical weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 23, 2012

Typhoon Teleconnection!

As we enter the first week of October and the first full month of Autumn we are being treated to highs in the low 70s. Things are about to change, and quite quickly. We will go from a high of 72° on Thursday to a high of 52° on Friday as an aggressive cold front moves through thanks to the jetstream. This cold blast isn’t random, in fact it is being prompted by an event taking place thousands of miles in the Western Pacific Ocean! This past weekend Super-Typhoon Jelawat barrelled through Japan and has been tracking to the northeast up the coast of asia for nearly a week. It has been observed for years that when a typhoon tracks on the path that Jelawat is taking that it can determine whether or not the Midwest sees cold weather 10-14 days later (or what is now 4 days from today). When typhoons track northeast along the Asian coast they tend to jumble up the jetstream usually resulting in a trough, or dip, in the jetstream over the Midwest which can allow a pocket of unseasonably cold air to sink down from Canada. When you are bundling up this weekend, especially overnight when temps drop into the low 30s, you can thank Typhoon Jelawat! -Greg

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Posted under cold blast, event, tropical weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 1, 2012